Quantum Economic Advantage Calculator

The Quantum Economic Advantage Calculator is designed to allow users to explore different combinations of algorithmic problems and quantum hardware. Users can freely deviate from known projections and default parameters to derive their own insights as to the general timeline of when certain scenarios may become economically advantageous to run on a quantum machine.

1. Integer Factorization on IBM (Superconducting)

Advanced Options

Problem

Classical Runtime

\frac{{ e}^{\left({\left(\frac{64}{9}\cdot n\right)}^{\left(\frac{1}{3}\right)}\cdot{\log_{ e}\left( n\right)}^{\left(\frac{2}{3}\right)}\right)}}{ p}

Quantum Runtime

{ n}^{\left(2\right)}\cdot\log_{ e}\left( n\right)

Roadmap

Year	# of physical Qubits
2020	27
2024	133
2033	100000

Connectivity Penalty

The overhead to embed the quantum circuit in hardware with limited connectivity.

\sqrt{ q}

Qubits to Problem Size

The function which correlates maximum problem size solvable with the given number of qubits (q).

Classical Hardware Speed Advantage

The number of operations a classical computer could perform in the time it takes a quantum computer to perform one.

% change per year

Classical Compute Cost Advantage

The cost of doing one quantum operation as compared to one classical operation.

% change per year

Physical-Logical Qubit Ratio

Number of physical qubits needed per one error corrected logical qubit.

% change per year

10⁰10¹10²10³10⁴

10⁰10⁵10¹⁰10¹⁵10²⁰10²⁵

Classical
Algorithm

Classical
Algorithm
Cost

Quantum
Algorithm
Steps

Quantum
Algorithm
Cost

20252027202920312033

10⁰10¹10²10³10⁴

Quantum
Feasibility

Speed
Advantage

Cost
Advantage

2029

20252026202720292030

10⁰10²10⁴

Logical Qubits

Physical Qubits

Problem Size

126

133

156

22974

100000